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What will be the status of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah by mid-January 2025?
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UNIFIL•United Nations Interim Force•Lebanon•Israeli army•Israel•Hezbollah•Lebanese•Najib Mikati•United States•France•Lebanese army•Israeli•Lebanese military
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Maintained • 25%
Ceasefire Breached • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Ended with Agreement • 25%
Official statements from UNIFIL or credible news sources.
Story
UNIFIL Urges Israel to Speed Up Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon as Lebanese PM Seeks Pressure Before 60-Day Ceasefire Ends
Dec 23, 2024, 04:00 PM
UNIFIL, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, has urged the Israeli army to accelerate its withdrawal from southern Lebanon. This call comes nearly a month into a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati has also appealed to the United States and France to pressure Israel to speed up its withdrawal, emphasizing the need for action before the 60-day ceasefire period expires. The truce agreement stipulates that the Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeepers will deploy in southern Lebanon as the Israeli forces pull out over 60 days. However, Israeli officials have indicated that the withdrawal might proceed slower than anticipated due to the slow deployment of the Lebanese military. Discussions are underway in Israel about whether to fully withdraw by the 60th day, even if the Lebanese army is not fully deployed.
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Ceasefire collapses, no further conflict • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Hezbollah initiates conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses, Israel initiates conflict • 25%
Dissolved • 25%
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
New agreement • 25%
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Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued Violations • 25%
Mutual Agreement • 25%
Third-Party Intervention • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
