Market
What changes will occur in the military situation in Ukraine following Lavrov's statements by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military activity • 25%
Decreased military activity • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New frontlines established • 25%
Reports from Ukrainian and Russian military or verified international news agencies
Story
Lavrov Rejects Ukraine Truce, Calls for Enforceable Agreements, Ready to Consult Trump
Dec 26, 2024, 08:03 AM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that an easy resolution to the Ukraine crisis should not be expected. Lavrov emphasized that Russia remains open to negotiations on the conflict but requires serious and concrete proposals. He clarified that Russia is not setting preconditions but demands adherence to previously agreed terms. Lavrov dismissed the possibility of a truce or ceasefire, calling it a "path to nowhere," and accused the West of seeking a ceasefire to allow Kiev to rearm. He stressed that future agreements must include mechanisms to prevent their violation and provide security guarantees for Russia and Europe. Lavrov also noted that Russia has no illusions that Donald Trump's presidency will automatically lead to negotiations but expressed readiness to consult with the Trump administration on Ukraine.
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Fluctuating levels • 25%
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Significant decrease • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Reduced tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Peace negotiations commence • 25%
Russia deescalates military actions • 25%
Russia maintains current level of engagement • 25%
Russia escalates military actions • 25%
Other development • 25%
Russia launches new offensive • 25%
Ukraine launches new offensive • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No change • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
Moderate decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Operation Ceased • 25%
Other • 25%
New Commander Appointed • 25%
Current Commander Remains • 25%
Military aid to Ukraine • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Significant Territorial Gain • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Territorial losses • 25%
Increased Military Aid to Ukraine • 25%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 25%
Mediation Efforts • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
