Market
How will NATO respond to Russia's demands about presence in Ukraine by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
NATO agrees to demands • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Increased NATO presence • 25%
Official statements from NATO, Ukrainian government, or Russian government
Story
Russia's Lavrov Warns West with 'Oreshnik' Test, Seeks Normal US Relations
Dec 5, 2024, 11:30 PM
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, stated that Russia does not seek war with the United States and desires normal relations. Lavrov emphasized that Russia is prepared to use any means to defend its interests, highlighting the recent test of the 'Oreshnik' hypersonic missile as a clear signal to the West. He warned that discussions of a limited nuclear strike are an invitation to catastrophe that Russia wants to avoid. Lavrov noted that Russia and the US currently maintain dialogue mainly through prisoner exchange channels. He reiterated that Russia does not intend to destroy the Ukrainian people, whom he referred to as 'brothers and sisters,' and asserted that it is mistaken for anyone in the West to believe that Russia has no 'red lines.' He stated that Russia's conditions are 'No NATO, no military bases, no military exercises with foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.'
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No significant action • 25%
Impose new sanctions on Russia • 25%
Increase diplomatic efforts • 25%
Increase military presence in Eastern Europe • 25%
Rejection of membership request • 25%
Alternative security guarantees offered • 25%
Formal invitation extended • 25%
No official response • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased military presence in Eastern Europe • 25%
NATO maintains current stance • 25%
NATO withdraws offer • 25%
NATO accelerates membership • 25%
NATO delays membership • 25%
Withdrawal of support • 25%
Increase in military presence • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military response • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress on membership • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Deployment of additional troops to Eastern Europe • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No response • 25%
Increase in their own aid • 25%
Maintain current aid levels • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
Supportive • 25%
No official reaction • 25%
Critical • 25%
Neutral • 25%