Market
What will be the next major military escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia launches new offensive • 25%
Ukraine launches new offensive • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other development • 25%
Reports from international news agencies, official military announcements
Story
Russia Intercepts Eight US-Supplied Long-Range ATACMS Missiles, Warns of Hypersonic Retaliation
Jan 4, 2025, 10:15 AM
Russia's military reported intercepting eight US-supplied ATACMS missiles launched by Ukraine, according to statements from Russian defense forces. The incident marks a notable escalation in the ongoing conflict, as Moscow has previously warned that the use of such long-range missiles could provoke a hypersonic ballistic missile attack on central Kyiv. The ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 190 miles, were part of a broader assault that also included 72 drones, all of which were reportedly downed by Russian air defenses. The Russian military did not specify whether there were any casualties or damage resulting from the missile interception. Moscow has accused the outgoing Biden administration of stoking the conflict by supplying these missiles to Ukraine.
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Stalemate • 25%
Ukrainian Victory • 25%
Russian Victory • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Chechnya • 25%
Donbas • 25%
Crimea • 25%
Other • 25%
Fluctuating levels • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in activity • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
Ukrainian victory • 25%
Russian victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Decreased conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ukrainian victory • 25%
No engagement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russian victory • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Minimal interception • 25%
Majority intercepted • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No interception • 25%