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What will be the leadership outcome in Belarus by end of 2025?
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European Union•UK•Canada•Australia•New Zealand•Belarus•Alexander Lukashenko•EU•Russia•Ukraine•Lukashenko
Resolution / Starting Odds
Alexander Lukashenko remains in power • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Belarusian government or major news outlets
Story
EU and Allies Condemn Belarus Election, Impose Sanctions Over Human Rights Violations
Jan 27, 2025, 03:33 PM
The European Union, along with the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, has condemned the recent presidential election in Belarus, labeling it a 'sham' and criticizing the re-election of Alexander Lukashenko. In response, the EU has threatened to impose new sanctions on Belarus. The UK has already announced sanctions targeting six individuals and three entities in Belarus, including the head of the central election commission and defense companies, due to human rights violations and links to Russia's war in Ukraine. Canada has also imposed sanctions on 10 individuals and 12 entities in Belarus for severe and systematic human rights abuses. The UK has expressed solidarity with the people of Belarus, emphasizing their right to freedom and democracy, and has condemned Lukashenko's brutal regime.
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New president elected • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
Military coup • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Election annulled • 10%
Other candidate wins • 10%
Lukashenko wins • 70%
No clear outcome by January 31, 2025 • 10%
Constitutional changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New political opposition movements • 25%
Increased authoritarian measures • 25%
Other • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
New president appointed • 25%
Military leadership • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Mediation efforts • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic isolation • 25%
New leader from Lukashenko's party • 25%
New leader from opposition • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased isolation • 25%
Strengthened ties with Russia • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations with the EU • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Calls for dialogue without sanctions • 25%
Condemnation and new sanctions • 25%
General acceptance of the results • 25%
International diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Increased political repression • 25%
Constitutional changes proposed • 25%
Escalation to violence • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Government negotiation • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Moderate protests • 25%
No significant protests • 25%
Small-scale protests • 25%
Large-scale protests • 25%
Form a government-in-exile • 25%
Seek international support • 25%
Organize mass protests • 25%
No significant action • 25%