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What will be the outcome of international diplomatic actions regarding Belarus by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic isolation • 25%
Mediation efforts • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Reports from the United Nations or other international bodies
Story
Belarus's Lukashenko Wins Seventh Term with 87.6% Amid Accusations of Sham Election
Jan 26, 2025, 05:33 PM
Belarus held presidential elections on Sunday, with incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko expected to secure his seventh term in office, extending his 30-year rule over the country. Exit polls indicate that Lukashenko won with 87.6% of the vote, amid widespread criticism from opposition groups and international observers who have denounced the election as a sham lacking real opposition. Lukashenko, who referred to Belarus as a 'brutal democracy' after casting his vote, has maintained an authoritarian grip on the country since 1994, with political opponents jailed or exiled and independent media suppressed. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated, 'This is a blatant affront to democracy. Lukashenko doesn’t have any legitimacy.' The European Union and other Western nations have condemned the election, citing the lack of democratic processes and the suppression of dissent.
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No significant action • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Condemnation and new sanctions • 25%
General acceptance of the results • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Calls for dialogue without sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains in power • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations with the EU • 25%
Strengthened ties with Russia • 25%
Increased isolation • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened alliance • 25%
Weakened ties • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
New president elected • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Military coup • 25%
Not recognized by most countries • 25%
Undecided by February 28, 2025 • 25%
Recognized by most countries • 25%
Recognized by some countries • 25%
Government negotiation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Escalation to violence • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%