Market
Who will lead Belarus after the 2025 presidential election?
2
Marco Rubio•American•Anastassia Nuhfer•Belarusian•Nuhfer•Biden•Belarus•Alexander Lukashenko•Europe•Christopher Smith•Western
Resolution / Starting Odds
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
New leader from opposition • 25%
New leader from Lukashenko's party • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Belarusian government or credible international news outlets
Story
Belarus Frees Anastassia Nuhfer in Gesture of Goodwill Amid Controversial Election
Jan 26, 2025, 05:23 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the release of American citizen Anastassia Nuhfer from a Belarusian prison. Nuhfer, 48, was detained in December 2024 during the Biden administration, reportedly linked to protests in 2020. The reasons for her detention remain unclear. Her release was described as a unilateral gesture of goodwill by Belarus, coinciding with the country's controversial presidential election. President Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as "Europe's last dictator," is expected to secure another term amid accusations of election manipulation and a crackdown on dissent. The U.S. State Department credited its diplomatic efforts, including the involvement of Deputy Assistant Secretary Christopher Smith, in securing Nuhfer's release. This development highlights ongoing tensions between Belarus and Western nations over human rights and democratic practices.
View original story
Similar markets
Other candidate wins • 10%
Election annulled • 10%
No clear outcome by January 31, 2025 • 10%
Lukashenko wins • 70%
Alexander Lukashenko remains in power • 25%
Other • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Increased authoritarian measures • 25%
New political opposition movements • 25%
Constitutional changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
International diplomatic engagement • 25%
Constitutional changes proposed • 25%
Increased political repression • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposition Candidate 1 • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko • 25%
Opposition Candidate 2 • 25%
No significant protests • 25%
Small-scale protests • 25%
Moderate protests • 25%
Large-scale protests • 25%
Military coup • 25%
New president elected • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Military leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
New president appointed • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Condemnation and new sanctions • 25%
Calls for dialogue without sanctions • 25%
General acceptance of the results • 25%