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Leadership change in Belarus following security pact by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
New president appointed • 25%
Military leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Belarusian government, verified by international news agencies
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Russia, Belarus to Ink Security Pact on Friday, Including Nuclear Weapons
Dec 6, 2024, 12:33 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia and Belarus will sign an interstate treaty on security guarantees within the framework of the Union State at the Supreme State Council meeting in Minsk on Friday. The agreement includes provisions for deploying all available forces, including Russian nuclear weapons and tactical nuclear weapons, to ensure the defense and sovereignty of both nations. This mutual security pact is seen as a significant step in enhancing the military and strategic partnership between Moscow and Minsk.
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Military coup • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
New president elected • 25%
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Request for reduction of foreign military presence • 25%
Increased cooperation with NATO • 25%
Neutral stance with no changes • 25%
Continued support for Russian military presence • 25%
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Increased economic sanctions • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President • 25%
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New President from Zelenskyy's Party • 25%
New President from Opposition Party • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
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Economic incentives from Russia • 25%
Increased security threats • 25%
Increased military presence in Eastern Europe • 25%
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Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
UN resolution • 25%
NATO condemnation • 25%
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