Market
How many fatalities will result from Mozambique's protests by February 28, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 50 • 25%
50 to 100 • 25%
101 to 200 • 25%
More than 200 • 25%
Reports from Mozambique's law enforcement agencies or credible news outlets
Story
Over 1,534 Prisoners Escape Maputo Jail Amid Protests, 33 Dead and 15 Injured
Dec 25, 2024, 09:37 PM
On December 25, 2024, more than 1,500 prisoners escaped from a maximum-security prison in Maputo, Mozambique, amid ongoing protests linked to the disputed results of the recent presidential election. The unrest, which has entered its third day, followed the confirmation of the ruling Frelimo party's victory, a result that has been met with accusations of fraud from opposition groups. The prison break occurred during a riot that resulted in at least 33 deaths and 15 injuries, according to local police. The escapees took advantage of the holiday season, when fewer guards were on duty. As of now, approximately 150 of the escapees have been recaptured. The situation has raised concerns over public safety and the response of law enforcement amid the political turmoil in the country.
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More than 100 • 25%
Less than 10 • 25%
10 to 50 • 25%
51 to 100 • 25%
Continued Unrest • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Opposition gains power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
No significant participation • 25%
Minimal participation and little impact • 25%
Moderate participation with some impact • 25%
Widespread participation and significant impact • 25%
Protests continue without resolution • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Protests are suppressed • 25%
Protests lead to government concessions • 25%
32 or more deaths • 25%
8-15 deaths • 25%
16-23 deaths • 25%
24-31 deaths • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Mediation initiated • 25%
Official condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Frelimo confirmed as winner • 25%
Opposition declared winner • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other resolution • 25%