Market
What will be the impact of U.S. facilitated peace negotiations on Ukraine's territorial integrity by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Territory regained • 25%
Territory lost • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Official Ukrainian government statements or credible news reports
Story
Trump May Pursue Back-Channel Diplomacy to End Ukraine War, Financial Times Reports, Risking Security Guarantees
Dec 28, 2024, 06:14 PM
The Financial Times reports that Donald Trump, as the incoming U.S. president, may pursue back-channel diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Trump's business-oriented approach and desire to avoid military conflicts could lead to the U.S. facilitating significant agreements with Russia. However, this strategy raises concerns about Ukraine potentially being pressured into peace negotiations without adequate security guarantees. Experts warn that such a move could compromise Ukraine's sovereignty and security, particularly in light of ongoing aggressive actions from Russia.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Full Peace Agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Talks end with no agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks postponed indefinitely • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Ongoing talks • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%