Market
Primary U.S. response to Iran's nuclear advancements by Apr 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military strike • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official U.S. government statements, credible news reports
Story
Biden Considered Iran Strike Before Jan. 20; Sullivan Presented Options, No Authorization Given
Jan 2, 2025, 08:08 PM
President Joe Biden recently discussed potential military options for striking Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran moves towards developing a nuclear weapon before January 20, according to sources cited by Axios and other outlets. In a meeting that took place approximately one month ago, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan presented the President with possible responses to Iran's accelerating nuclear program. Some of Biden's top aides believe that the combination of Iran's nuclear advancements and the weakening of Iran and its proxies amid the ongoing conflict with Israel presents both an imperative and an opportunity for the U.S. to act before the presidential transition. Despite these discussions, President Biden did not authorize any military action against Iran.
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