Market
Iran's response to U.S. actions by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Escalate nuclear activities • 25%
Seek diplomatic talks • 25%
Retaliate militarily • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official statements from Iranian government, credible news reports
Story
Biden Considered Iran Strike Before Jan. 20; Sullivan Presented Options, No Authorization Given
Jan 2, 2025, 08:08 PM
President Joe Biden recently discussed potential military options for striking Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran moves towards developing a nuclear weapon before January 20, according to sources cited by Axios and other outlets. In a meeting that took place approximately one month ago, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan presented the President with possible responses to Iran's accelerating nuclear program. Some of Biden's top aides believe that the combination of Iran's nuclear advancements and the weakening of Iran and its proxies amid the ongoing conflict with Israel presents both an imperative and an opportunity for the U.S. to act before the presidential transition. Despite these discussions, President Biden did not authorize any military action against Iran.
View original story
Similar markets
Cyber attacks • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Military support to Houthis • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
Accelerated Nuclear Development • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Retaliatory military action • 25%
Increased nuclear activity • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Diplomatic actions at UN • 25%
No response • 25%
Condemnation only • 25%
Military support to Houthis • 25%
Formal Denial • 25%
Diplomatic Action • 25%
No Action • 25%
Legal Action • 25%
No response by deadline • 25%
Requests modifications • 25%
Declines proposal • 25%
Accepts and begins negotiations • 25%
Rejection • 25%
Acceptance • 25%
Request for more time • 25%
No response • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Pause enrichment • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increase enrichment further • 25%
Other • 25%