Market
What will be the primary method the US uses to address Iran's nuclear ambitions by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Efforts • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Other • 25%
Official US government policy announcements or credible news reports on US actions
Story
Trump Weighs Preemptive Strikes on Iran with Possible US-Israel Operation
Dec 13, 2024, 07:59 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is considering a range of options to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, including the possibility of preemptive airstrikes and a US-Israeli coordinated operation, according to a Friday morning report by the Wall Street Journal. Advisers to Trump are concerned that economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts are insufficient to contain Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The military-strike option is now under serious review by his transition team, potentially signaling a significant shift in U.S. policy towards Iran. Discussions also include the possibility of transferring bunker-buster bombs to Israel to facilitate potential strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
View original story
Similar markets
Military action • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
New Sanctions • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
No Action • 25%
Preventive airstrikes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No Action • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Military Strike • 25%
Transfer of military equipment to allies • 25%
Military action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic efforts only • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military strike • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Iran complies with E3 demands • 25%
Continued non-compliance • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Decrease in enrichment activities • 25%
Increase in enrichment activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Full compliance with international demands • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Preemptive strikes • 25%
No major policy change • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Military Action • 25%