Market
Primary US action against Iran by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Airstrikes • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Action • 25%
Official US government announcements or reports from major news outlets such as CNN or The New York Times
Story
Trump's Team Considers Airstrikes and Increased Sanctions Against Iran, Aiming to Prevent Nuclear Weapon Development Within First 100 Days
Jan 5, 2025, 05:46 PM
The Wall Street Journal reports that Donald Trump's team is considering various options against Iran, including the possibility of airstrikes. These discussions are part of a broader strategy that also involves plans to increase sanctions on Iran. The consideration of airstrikes is aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and there is speculation that action might be taken within the first 100 days of Trump's administration.
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Military Strike • 25%
Diplomatic Negotiations • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Action • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military strike • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
No Action • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
New Sanctions • 25%
Regional security threat • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Iranian provocation • 25%
Nuclear advancement • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Escalate nuclear activities • 25%
Seek diplomatic talks • 25%
Retaliate militarily • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Retaliatory military action • 25%
Increased nuclear activity • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Preventive airstrikes • 25%
