Market
Primary reason for negotiation failure by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Security concerns • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Lack of international support • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Statements from negotiation parties or credible news analysis
Story
Al-Quds Brigades' Abu Hamza Reports Israeli Hostage Suicide Attempt Due to Psychological State
Jan 2, 2025, 10:04 AM
The Al-Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, reported that three days ago, one of their medical teams successfully intervened to prevent an Israeli hostage from committing suicide. The hostage's psychological state had deteriorated following the imposition of new conditions by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, which led to the failure and delay of negotiations for his release, according to Abu Hamza, the military spokesperson for the Al-Quds Brigades. The hostage was scheduled to be released in the first stage of a prisoner exchange deal with Israel. In response to the incident, the Al-Quds Brigades have decided to tighten security and safety measures for the hostages.
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Disagreement on terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Political opposition • 25%
Financial constraints • 25%
Lack of negotiation progress • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Unreasonable union demands • 25%
Hamas demands • 25%
Other • 25%
Mediator disagreements • 25%
Israeli conditions • 25%
Presidential veto • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Lack of support from Republicans • 25%
Lack of support from Democrats • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other factors • 25%
Internal political dynamics • 25%
Diplomatic strategy • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
Human error • 25%
Design flaw • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Other entity • 25%
Both parties • 25%
Islamic Jihad • 25%
Israeli government • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Lack of international pressure • 25%
Internal Hamas strategy • 25%
U.S. pressure on Israel • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Hostage Release Issues • 25%
Ceasefire Terms • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Other • 25%