Market
Main reason for failure to implement ceasefire by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Disagreement on terms • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Political opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports and analysis from credible news agencies such as CNN, BBC, or Al Jazeera.
Story
Hamas Accepts Ceasefire, Hostage Release Plan; Israel's Approval Pending
Jan 14, 2025, 11:49 AM
Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of dozens of hostages, including 33 in the initial phase, according to officials involved in the talks in Cairo. Mediator Qatar announced that the negotiations are at the 'closest point' yet to sealing a deal, urging the parties to sign the agreement as soon as possible, with an announcement expected within the next 24 hours. Israel is still weighing the proposal, with Israeli officials indicating that progress has been made but that details are being finalized. The deal would involve Hamas releasing hostages in exchange for Israel freeing Palestinian prisoners. The plan requires approval by the Israeli Cabinet before implementation. Mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States are involved in finalizing the details.
View original story
Similar markets
Other • 25%
Israeli conditions • 25%
Mediator disagreements • 25%
Hamas demands • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Lack of international support • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Other • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
Disagreements over prisoner release terms • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release terms • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Other • 25%
Qatar • 25%
United States • 25%
Egypt • 25%
Other • 25%
Humanitarian Concerns • 25%
Political Disagreements • 25%
Security Issues • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
Military actions • 25%
No withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws and disarms • 25%
Partial withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Political disagreements • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Technical issues • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire ends without extension • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%