Market
Primary reason for ceasefire agreement delay by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas demands • 25%
Israeli conditions • 25%
Mediator disagreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from international news agencies and statements from involved parties.
Story
Netanyahu Accuses Hamas of Reneging on Ceasefire Deal, Citing Last-Minute Crisis Delaying Approval
Jan 16, 2025, 08:53 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office announced that Hamas is reneging on parts of the previously agreed Gaza ceasefire deal, creating a last-minute crisis and attempting to 'extort further concessions.' The statement accused Hamas of abandoning explicit understandings reached with mediators—including Qatar, Egypt, and the United States—in an effort to exert pressure. As a result, the Israeli cabinet will not convene to approve the ceasefire until mediators confirm that Hamas has fully agreed to all details of the agreement. The postponement delays approval of the deal aimed at ending hostilities and facilitating hostage releases.
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Disagreement on terms • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Political opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
No withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws and disarms • 25%
Partial withdrawal or disarmament • 25%
Logistical challenges • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release terms • 25%
Disagreements over prisoner release terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Hamas Demands • 25%
External Political Pressure • 25%
Mediation Challenges • 25%
Internal Israeli Opposition • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Israel takes military action • 25%
New ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Prisoner exchange disputes • 25%
Other • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Territorial disputes • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Other • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Agreement dissolved • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%