Market
Primary EU response to Baltic cable damage by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official EU communications and policy announcements
Story
Finland Seizes Russian Tanker Over Baltic Cable Damage; Germany Calls for EU Sanctions
Dec 29, 2024, 12:20 PM
Finnish authorities have seized the Russian-linked oil tanker Eagle S, suspected of damaging undersea power and telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea on December 25. The tanker, part of Russia's so-called 'shadow fleet' and carrying Russian oil, is believed to have severed the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia, as well as four additional telecom cables, by dragging its anchor along the seabed. Investigators have found drag marks stretching for dozens of kilometers, possibly up to 100 km, on the seafloor near where the cables were damaged. Reports suggest the Eagle S was equipped with transmitting and receiving devices, effectively functioning as a spy ship. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has called for new European Union sanctions against Russia, warning that Russian ships are damaging vital undersea cables almost every month. The European Union is considering stronger measures in response to the incidents.
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Installation of surveillance systems • 25%
Increased naval patrols • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
International diplomatic actions • 25%
Improved cable protection measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased naval patrols • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Accidental damage confirmed • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Germany • 25%
France • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
Accidental maritime incident • 25%
Undetermined cause • 25%
Other nation-state involvement • 25%
Russian sabotage • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased security measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Joint EU investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Resolved with conviction • 25%
Resolved without conviction • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Closed without resolution • 25%
Sabotage by another entity • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Anchor damage by 'Eagle S' • 25%
Cause undetermined • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Replacement • 25%
Other • 25%
Temporary Fix • 25%
Repair • 25%