Market
Primary security response by Baltic Sea nations to cable incident by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased naval patrols • 25%
Improved cable protection measures • 25%
International diplomatic actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official announcements from Baltic Sea nations or regional security organizations
Story
Finland Detains Russian Tanker Eagle S in Undersea Cable Sabotage Investigation
Dec 26, 2024, 03:18 PM
Finland is investigating an undersea power cable outage on the Estlink 2 interconnector connecting Finland and Estonia after a sudden drop in capacity from 1,016 MW to 358 MW occurred at 10:26 AM GMT on December 25, 2024. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced that authorities are looking into the cause of the disruption, with sabotage not being ruled out. Finnish police are investigating whether a foreign ship was involved in damaging the cable. On December 26, Finnish authorities boarded and detained the oil tanker Eagle S, which is linked to Russia's 'shadow fleet', on suspicion of causing the damage. The National Bureau of Investigation has opened a probe for 'aggravated sabotage' into the incident. Four telecommunication cables between Finland and Estonia are also out of service. The incident raises concerns over critical infrastructure security in the Baltic Sea.
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Increased naval patrols • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Installation of surveillance systems • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Joint effort • 25%
Sweden • 25%
Finland • 25%
Other Baltic Sea country • 25%
United States • 25%
Germany • 25%
France • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Joint EU investigation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Estonia • 25%
Finland • 25%
Other • 25%
Denmark • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Accidental damage confirmed • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%