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Outcome of South Korean political crisis post-Yoon Suk Yeol's arrest by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution with reforms • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Continuation of current situation • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets covering South Korean politics
Story
South Korea's President Yoon Arrested for Insurrection in Unprecedented Move
Jan 18, 2025, 06:24 PM
South Korean investigators have obtained a court warrant to formally arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on charges of insurrection and abuse of power related to his failed martial law declaration on December 3rd. On January 18, 2025, the Seoul Western District Court, presided over by Judge Cha Eun-kyung, approved the arrest warrant due to concerns Yoon might destroy evidence. This marks the first time in South Korean constitutional history that a sitting president has been formally arrested. Following the court's decision, hundreds of Yoon's supporters clashed with police, storming the courthouse, breaking windows, and causing property damage. Police deployed 1,400 officers to the scene and arrested at least 40 protesters.
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Other resolution • 25%
Yoon arrested and charged • 25%
Yoon remains at large • 25%
Yoon exiled or flees the country • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
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New elections held • 25%
Yoon remains in office without further incidents • 25%
Other significant political developments • 25%
Yoon resigns voluntarily • 25%
Yoon faces successful impeachment • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
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New presidential elections called • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
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Yoon's party • 25%
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Successfully completes term • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Resigns • 25%
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Trial postponed indefinitely • 25%
Impeachment upheld • 25%
Impeachment overturned • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
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New presidential election called • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol faces trial • 25%
Majority support arrest • 25%
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Investigation Inconclusive • 25%
Cleared of All Allegations • 25%
Found Guilty of Some Allegations • 25%
Found Guilty of All Allegations • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Removed from office • 25%
Ongoing • 25%
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