Market
Outcome of U.S.-Denmark diplomatic crisis over Greenland by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Denmark escalates to international bodies • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. or Danish governments or credible news sources
Story
Trump Threatens Tariffs in Aggressive Push for Greenland, Citing National Security
Jan 24, 2025, 09:36 PM
U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified his efforts to acquire Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, sparking a diplomatic crisis. In a recent 45-minute phone call with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Trump reportedly became aggressive, insisting on U.S. control over Greenland and threatening tariffs on Denmark if the territory was not sold to the U.S. The call, described as 'horrendous' by sources, has left Denmark in 'crisis mode' as it grapples with the implications of Trump's demands. Trump's interest in Greenland stems from its strategic importance for U.S. national security, particularly in the context of competition with Russia and China in the Arctic region. Despite Trump's insistence, both Denmark and Greenland have maintained that the island is not for sale, with Greenland's Prime Minister Mute Egede emphasizing the right of Greenland's residents to decide their future.
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Similar markets
Resolution through diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Escalation to economic sanctions • 25%
Continued diplomatic tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Greenland sold to U.S. • 25%
Denmark rejects U.S. proposal • 25%
U.S. expands military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
No significant change • 34%
Formal purchase proposal • 33%
Increased cooperation without purchase • 33%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal purchase proposal • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
No resolution reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Denmark strengthens defense of Greenland • 25%
Third-party mediation • 25%
U.S.-Denmark agreement on Greenland • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
Enhanced security agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement to sell Greenland • 25%
Agreement on other terms • 25%
Negotiations without agreement • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%