Market
What will be the outcome of South Korean protests related to Yoon's impeachment by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Reports from major news outlets like BBC, CNN, and local South Korean media
Story
South Korean Military Leaders Indicted Amid Yoon's Impeachment and Failed Arrest Attempt
Jan 4, 2025, 04:40 PM
South Korean prosecutors have indicted Army Chief Park An-su and Special Warfare Commander Kwak Jong-keun for their alleged roles in the brief imposition of martial law last month. The indictment follows a period of political turmoil sparked by President Yoon Suk-yeol's declaration of martial law on December 3, which led to his impeachment by parliament on December 14. The prosecutors secured an arrest warrant for Yoon, but a first attempt to arrest him failed due to a six-hour standoff at his residence, resisted by his security service and military troops. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials has requested acting President Choi Sang-mok to order the presidential security service to comply with the arrest warrant. Amidst this crisis, South Korea has seen massive protests both in support of and against Yoon, reflecting deep societal divisions. The country awaits a decision from the Constitutional Court on Yoon's impeachment, expected by mid-June.
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Martial law lifted, Yoon remains • 25%
No significant change • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Protests End • 25%
Protests Subside • 25%
Protests Intensify • 25%
Impeachment upheld and Yoon removed • 25%
Impeachment process stalled with no resolution • 25%
Impeachment overturned and Yoon reinstated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
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Impeached • 25%
Not Impeached • 25%
Resignation • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New presidential elections called • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Protests intensify • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests remain stable • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Not impeached • 25%
Impeached and removed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impeached but not removed • 25%
Protests Subside • 33%
Protests Intensify • 33%
Protests Remain Unchanged • 34%
Violence or unrest • 25%
Government concession • 25%
Protesters disband without resolution • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%