Market
How will US-Cuba diplomatic relations change following the reinstatement decision by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improvement in relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements or news reports
Story
Trump Reinstates Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism, Reversing Biden's Decision
Jan 21, 2025, 02:06 AM
On his first day in office, President Donald Trump reinstated Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, reversing former President Joe Biden's executive order from January 14 that had removed the country from the list just six days earlier. The White House announced the decision, which places Cuba back on the list of countries supporting terrorism and reimposes sanctions such as restrictions on foreign aid and economic penalties. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the move, calling it an act of arrogance and disregard for the truth. U.S. politicians such as Senator Rick Scott and Representative Mario Díaz-Balart praised the decision, stating it protects national security interests and promotes freedom in the Western Hemisphere.
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Similar markets
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No change • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Further easing of sanctions • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Reimposition of sanctions • 25%
Restoration of full diplomatic relations • 25%
Decrease in trade • 25%
Increase in trade • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Suspend expropriation claims • 25%
Lift terrorism designation • 25%
Rescind Trump-era restrictions • 25%
All of the above • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other diplomatic gestures • 25%
Release of political prisoners • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Human rights issues • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Uncertain/Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Partial release with ongoing negotiations • 25%
Agreement falls apart • 25%
All political prisoners released • 25%
No further releases • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased economic cooperation with Russia/China • 25%
No significant diplomatic action • 25%
Recall of Cuban ambassador to the U.S. • 25%
Formal complaint to the United Nations • 25%