Market
How will Biden's Cuba policy changes impact U.S.-Cuba relations by July 20, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Statements from U.S. and Cuban government officials or credible news sources reporting on diplomatic relations
Story
Biden to Lift Cuba's Terrorism Designation, Rescind Trump Restrictions Before Leaving Office
Jan 14, 2025, 07:34 PM
The Biden administration is expected to lift the United States' designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism in the final days of President Joe Biden's term, according to U.S. officials cited by the Associated Press. In addition to removing Cuba from the terrorism list, the administration plans to rescind Trump-era restrictions and suspend expropriation claims against Cuba. The move is anticipated to lead to improved diplomatic relations and the potential release of political prisoners in response to U.S. actions. Republican lawmakers, including President-elect Donald Trump and incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have expressed outrage at the decision, vowing to reverse it when they take office on January 20.
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Other • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease in trade • 25%
Increase in trade • 25%
Other • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reimposition of sanctions • 25%
Restoration of full diplomatic relations • 25%
Further easing of sanctions • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Human rights issues • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Deal modified by Trump administration • 25%
Deal reversed by Trump administration • 25%
Deal remains intact • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Vatican • 25%
United Nations • 25%
European Union • 25%