Market
What will be the outcome of U.S.-Cuba relations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
Other • 25%
Official U.S. government statements, Cuban government announcements, and major news outlets
Story
Biden Administration to Remove Cuba From State Sponsors of Terrorism List, Suspend Title III in Final Days
Jan 14, 2025, 06:52 PM
The Biden administration is poised to remove Cuba from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism in its final days in office, according to multiple U.S. officials familiar with the matter. This decision comes after more than 1,400 days since 80 House Democrats urged President Biden to reverse the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. The move is expected to be announced soon, with a senior Biden administration official confirming that there is no information supporting Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Additionally, the administration plans to suspend Title III of the Helms-Burton Act, which has had significant economic repercussions for Cuba.
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Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Restoration of full diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Reimposition of sanctions • 25%
Further easing of sanctions • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Human rights issues • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
All political prisoners released • 25%
No further releases • 25%
Agreement falls apart • 25%
Partial release with ongoing negotiations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Uncertain/Other • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deal reversed by Trump administration • 25%
Deal remains intact • 25%
Deal modified by Trump administration • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Vatican • 25%
Other • 25%
European Union • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Release of political prisoners • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
Other diplomatic gestures • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%