Market
Primary focus of U.S.-Cuba relations by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic sanctions • 25%
Human rights issues • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
Analysis from major international relations think tanks or government statements
Story
Trump Reinstates Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism on First Day, Undoing Biden's Vatican-Brokered Deal
Jan 21, 2025, 01:24 AM
On his first day in office, President Donald Trump reinstated Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, reversing an executive order issued by former President Joe Biden just last week. Biden had removed Cuba from the list as part of a Vatican-brokered deal to facilitate the release of 553 political prisoners in Cuba. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel denounced the reinstatement as an act of 'arrogance and disdain for the truth,' asserting that Trump's objective is to continue the economic war against Cuba for purposes of domination. The move comes as Marco Rubio was confirmed as Secretary of State, who had previously expressed no doubt about Cuba's status as a terrorism sponsor.
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Other • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
Vatican • 25%
United Nations • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Immigration policy • 25%
Trade agreements • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Trade negotiations • 25%
Military tensions • 25%
Technology competition • 25%
Human rights issues • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Reimposition of sanctions • 25%
Restoration of full diplomatic relations • 25%
Further easing of sanctions • 25%
Improving relations with the EU • 25%
Focusing on Latin American alliances • 25%
Strengthening ties with Russia and China • 25%
Pursuing broader international recognition • 25%
Increase in trade • 25%
Decrease in trade • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Improvement in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade • 25%
Other • 25%
Technology • 25%
Regional Stability • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
Climate change • 25%
Taiwan relations • 25%
Trade relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Nuclear disarmament • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%