Market
Next Cuban diplomatic action in response to U.S. designation by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Recall of Cuban ambassador to the U.S. • 25%
Formal complaint to the United Nations • 25%
Increased economic cooperation with Russia/China • 25%
No significant diplomatic action • 25%
Official statements from the Cuban government
Story
Trump Reinstates Cuba as State Sponsor of Terrorism on First Day, Undoing Biden's Vatican-Brokered Deal
Jan 21, 2025, 01:24 AM
On his first day in office, President Donald Trump reinstated Cuba's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, reversing an executive order issued by former President Joe Biden just last week. Biden had removed Cuba from the list as part of a Vatican-brokered deal to facilitate the release of 553 political prisoners in Cuba. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel denounced the reinstatement as an act of 'arrogance and disdain for the truth,' asserting that Trump's objective is to continue the economic war against Cuba for purposes of domination. The move comes as Marco Rubio was confirmed as Secretary of State, who had previously expressed no doubt about Cuba's status as a terrorism sponsor.
View original story
Similar markets
Further easing of sanctions • 25%
Restoration of full diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Reimposition of sanctions • 25%
Increased economic partnerships with other countries • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Strengthening ties with Russia and China • 25%
Pursuing broader international recognition • 25%
Improving relations with the EU • 25%
Focusing on Latin American alliances • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Extradition of suspects • 25%
No significant action • 25%
US removes Cuba from terrorism list • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic engagement with US • 25%
Strengthening ties with US adversaries • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Release of political prisoners • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
Other diplomatic gestures • 25%
Continues support without further action • 25%
Withdraws support • 25%
Engages in direct negotiations • 25%
Increases diplomatic pressure on Israel • 25%
