Market
What will be the outcome of TikTok's U.S. operations by January 19, 2025?
2
Pam Bondi•Donald Trump•Senate Judiciary Committee•TikTok•Bondi•Chinese•ByteDance•Supreme Court•Justice Department•Richard Blumenthal•Trump•Jack Smith•Liz Cheney•Merrick Garland
Resolution / Starting Odds
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, TikTok, or the U.S. government
Story
Trump's AG Nominee Pam Bondi Declines to Comment on TikTok Ban at Senate Hearing, Amid Questions on Political Adversaries
Jan 15, 2025, 05:42 PM
Pam Bondi, nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to be the U.S. Attorney General, faced questions during her Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing about her stance on enforcing a potential ban on TikTok. Bondi declined to comment on whether she would enforce the law requiring TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its U.S. assets by January 19, 2025, or face a ban, citing ongoing litigation before the Supreme Court. She stated that she would consult with Justice Department officials regarding the matter. Additionally, Bondi was pressed by Senator Richard Blumenthal and others on whether she would use her position to prosecute Trump's political adversaries, including special counsel Jack Smith, Liz Cheney, and Merrick Garland. She refused to answer hypotheticals, emphasizing that no one has been pre-judged and that she would not politicize the Justice Department if confirmed.
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Similar markets
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Other acquisition • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Acquired by Project Liberty • 25%
Operations cease • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to another non-Chinese entity • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to Kevin O'Leary • 25%
Not sold and banned • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok wins appeal and continues operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned from U.S. app stores • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
TikTok banned in the U.S. • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues in the U.S. • 25%
Temporary extension granted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok is banned • 25%
TikTok remains available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok remains available without ByteDance divestment • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Banned • 25%
Not banned, but ByteDance divests • 25%
Not banned, no divestment • 25%