Market
What will be the status of TikTok's operations in the US by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Operational without change • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Permanently banned • 25%
TikTok's operational status as reported by major news outlets
Story
Supreme Court to Rule on TikTok Ban Friday as Trump Seeks to Delay January 19 Shutdown
Jan 16, 2025, 05:46 PM
The United States Supreme Court is poised to issue a decision on whether to ban the widely used video-sharing app TikTok, with the ruling anticipated as soon as Friday at 10 a.m. The potential ban, set to take effect on January 19, could result in TikTok being removed from app stores and eventually becoming unusable, raising concerns among its 170 million U.S. users about the fate of their data and possible alternatives. TikTok faces being shut down or forced to sever ties with its China-based parent company, ByteDance, due to national security concerns. The Biden administration has indicated it does not plan to enforce the ban immediately and is deferring the decision to President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration. President-elect Trump is reportedly exploring options to delay the ban or preserve TikTok's operations in the U.S., possibly through an executive order. Incoming National Security Adviser Mike Waltz stated that measures will be put in place to keep TikTok from "going dark," emphasizing the platform's importance in communicating the administration's "America First" message.
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Operating under temporary extension • 25%
Banned and shut down • 25%
Operating under ByteDance • 25%
Sold and operating • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Acquired by U.S. entity • 25%
Complete ban • 25%
Unrestricted operations • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Banned and inaccessible • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues without changes • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Shut down • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operational without restrictions • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Other status • 25%
TikTok is banned and becomes inaccessible • 25%
TikTok remains operational without changes • 25%
TikTok voluntarily shuts down operations • 25%
TikTok is sold and remains operational • 25%
TikTok remains banned • 25%
Under new joint venture • 25%
Operations ceased • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok divested to a U.S. company • 25%
Other status • 25%
Banned • 25%
TikTok resumes operations • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Court ruling enforcement • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Operational with ByteDance • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Operations suspended temporarily • 25%
Continues operation without restrictions • 25%
Shuts down on January 19 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operation with restrictions • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Remains operational without changes • 25%