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What will be the resolution of TikTok's legal challenges in the US by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Sold to another entity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Court rulings or official announcements
Story
China May Sell TikTok US to Musk's X Before January 19 Ban
Jan 14, 2025, 12:39 AM
Chinese officials are evaluating a potential option involving Elon Musk acquiring TikTok's US operations if the company fails to prevent a looming ban on the short-video app, according to people familiar with the matter. TikTok, owned by Beijing-based ByteDance Ltd., is facing a potential ban in the United States set to take effect on January 19 if legal challenges are unsuccessful, including a pending US Supreme Court decision. Under the scenario discussed, Musk's X, formerly known as Twitter, would take control of TikTok US and operate the businesses together, potentially serving its 170 million American users. Musk has previously spoken out against banning TikTok, arguing that although it would benefit X, he opposes censorship.
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Ban lifted • 25%
Ban avoided through sale • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Divestment and restructuring • 25%
Operational with conditions • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Full operational clearance • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Case ongoing • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Appeal denied, ban enforced • 25%
Settlement reached, operations continue • 25%
Appeal granted, no ban • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Pending further legal review • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Legal resolution favoring TikTok • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Legal resolution favoring US government • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban Overturned • 33%
Ban Upheld • 33%
Settlement Reached • 34%
Settlement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%