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What will be NATO's response to Ukraine's membership request by June 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Formal invitation extended • 25%
Alternative security guarantees offered • 25%
Rejection of membership request • 25%
No official response • 25%
Official NATO communications or announcements
Story
Ukraine Rejects NATO Alternatives on 30th Anniversary of Budapest Memorandum
Dec 3, 2024, 10:24 AM
On the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine has officially rejected any security guarantees short of full NATO membership, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ministry emphasized that only NATO membership can provide the necessary security to deter Russian aggression, highlighting the failure of the Budapest Memorandum to ensure Ukraine's safety. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha brought the document to NATO headquarters to underscore this point. Despite Ukraine's push for NATO membership, NATO foreign ministers are expected to rebuff Kyiv's request for progress on joining the alliance ahead of Donald Trump's return to the US presidency. Ukraine's stance is that NATO membership is the only 'real guarantee' for its security, and the country has urged NATO signatories, including the US and UK, to provide clear, binding security guarantees in light of Russia’s aggression.
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Membership denied • 25%
No change • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress on membership • 25%
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
Invitation denied • 25%
Invitation granted • 25%
Other • 25%
Decision postponed • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Decision postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
NATO maintains current stance • 25%
NATO accelerates membership • 25%
NATO withdraws offer • 25%
NATO delays membership • 25%
Majority in favor • 25%
Majority against • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority support with consensus • 25%
Minority support • 25%
No significant support • 25%
Majority support but no consensus • 25%
Changes in defense commitments • 33%
Changes in membership criteria • 33%
No significant changes • 34%
Security guarantees without NATO membership • 25%
Membership invitation extended • 25%
Pending • 25%
Candidate Status • 25%
Full Member • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Full NATO membership granted • 25%
No significant change • 25%