Market
What will be NATO's decision on Ukraine's membership status by December 31, 2025?
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Volodymyr Zelensky•NATO•Ukraine•Russia•Joe Biden•Budapest Memorandum•Andrii Sybiha•NATO Foreign Ministers•Brussels•Russian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress on membership • 25%
Official NATO announcements or credible international news reports
Story
Ukraine Demands Full NATO Membership, Urges Biden's Support, Requests 20 Air Defense Systems
Dec 3, 2024, 08:57 AM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for security guarantees from NATO and more weapons to defend Ukraine before any talks with Russia. Emphasizing that full NATO membership is necessary for Ukraine's survival, he urged U.S. President Joe Biden to rally support for Ukraine's accession to the alliance. Ukraine officially rejected any alternatives or substitutes to full NATO membership, citing the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum: "Having the bitter experience of the Budapest Memorandum behind us, we will not settle for any alternatives, surrogates, or substitutes for Ukraine's full membership in NATO." Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that Ukraine would not accept any security guarantees that replace NATO membership. Despite Ukraine's calls, NATO countries are unlikely to issue a membership invitation during the upcoming NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels due to a lack of consensus among alliance members. Marking the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine has also requested NATO to urgently provide at least 20 air defense systems—including HAWK, NASAMS, and IRIS-T batteries—to protect its critical infrastructure and prevent blackouts caused by Russian attacks.
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Decision postponed • 25%
Invitation denied • 25%
Invitation granted • 25%
Other • 25%
NATO withdraws offer • 25%
NATO accelerates membership • 25%
NATO maintains current stance • 25%
NATO delays membership • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
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No application • 25%
Membership application rejected • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership application pending • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
Decision postponed • 25%
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Rejection of membership request • 25%
Formal invitation extended • 25%
No official response • 25%
Alternative security guarantees offered • 25%
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Membership negotiations started • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
No progress • 25%
Other status • 25%
Full NATO member • 25%
Official candidate status • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Security guarantees without NATO membership • 25%
Candidate Status • 25%
Full Member • 25%
Pending • 25%
Membership invitation extended • 25%
Full NATO membership granted • 25%
Rejected • 25%
No significant changes • 34%
Changes in defense commitments • 33%
Changes in membership criteria • 33%