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What will be the impact of Lebanon ceasefire on regional conflicts by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction • 25%
Moderate reduction • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Analysis from international relations think tanks or official reports
Story
Blinken: Lebanon Ceasefire Deal Nears, Could End Gaza Conflict
Nov 26, 2024, 05:14 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken announced that the U.S. and its partners, including France, are in the final stages of securing a ceasefire agreement for Lebanon. Blinken emphasized the significance of this effort, stating that it would make a substantial difference by allowing civilians to return to their homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. He also noted that a ceasefire in Lebanon could help end the conflict in Gaza, preventing Hamas from relying on other fronts in the conflict. Hezbollah's ability to attack Israel has increased due to the incomplete implementation of UN Resolution 1701, but now there is an opportunity to fully implement it. The diplomatic efforts have been intensive, aiming to deescalate tensions and prevent the conflict from escalating into a broader regional war.
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Significant decrease in tensions • 25%
Moderate decrease in tensions • 25%
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Increase in tensions • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
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Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
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Political crisis or government change • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with some minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed hostilities • 25%
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Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
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Agreement not reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds completely • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire officially ends • 25%
Israel withdraws troops • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation and peace talks • 25%
Continued low-level hostilities • 25%
Major escalation involving multiple countries • 25%
Other unexpected outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued conflict without resolution • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%