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What will be the Lebanese government's stance on the ceasefire by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Supports ceasefire, takes action against Hezbollah • 25%
Supports ceasefire, no action against Hezbollah • 25%
Opposes ceasefire, supports Hezbollah • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Official statements from the Lebanese government reported by major news outlets.
Story
Israel to Treat Lebanon and Hezbollah as One if Ceasefire Collapses
Dec 3, 2024, 10:45 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued a stern warning to Lebanon, stating that if the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah collapses, Israel will no longer differentiate between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah. Katz emphasized that there would be no tolerance for Lebanon in such a scenario, and Israel would respond forcefully, treating Hezbollah and Lebanon as one entity. He urged the Lebanese army to enforce the ceasefire and keep Hezbollah away from the Litani River, warning that if war resumes, Israel would strike harder and deeper into Lebanon, including targeting Hezbollah's stronghold in Da'ahiya and Beirut.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire Implemented • 25%
Ceasefire Extended • 25%
Ceasefire Renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire Collapsed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Resolution and return to normalcy • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Escalation into further conflict • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Dissolved • 25%
Partially maintained • 25%
Fully maintained • 25%
Violated • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Ceasefire violated by both • 25%
Ceasefire maintained • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Lebanon • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic talks with Israel • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase in military readiness • 25%
Formal complaint to the UN • 25%
