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What will be the primary impact of the Lebanon ceasefire on regional tensions by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant decrease in tensions • 25%
Moderate decrease in tensions • 25%
No change in tensions • 25%
Increase in tensions • 25%
Analyses from international relations experts and reports in major news outlets
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Blinken: Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement Nears Finalization, Could Aid Gaza Conflict Resolution Amid U.S. and France Efforts
Nov 26, 2024, 05:12 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that discussions regarding a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon are in their final stages. During a press conference in Italy, Blinken emphasized that while the agreement has not yet been finalized, he is optimistic about reaching a conclusion soon. He noted that a ceasefire would significantly impact the situation, allowing citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Furthermore, Blinken indicated that achieving a ceasefire could help deescalate the ongoing conflict in Gaza, affecting Hamas's strategic calculations. He attributed the progress to intensive diplomatic efforts by the United States and its partners, including France, aimed at calming tensions in the region.
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Significant reduction • 25%
Moderate reduction • 25%
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Improved political stability • 25%
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Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with some minor incidents • 25%
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Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
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Government collapse • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
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Peace agreement reached • 25%
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Diplomatic resolution • 25%