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How will Taiwan's international relations change due to Chinese military drills by June 30, 2025?
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Taiwan•Defense Ministry•China•Japan•South China Sea•Taiwanese•William Lai•Pacific•Hsinchu•Chinese•Taiwan Strait•Chinese Foreign Ministry•Mao Ning
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthening ties with US • 25%
Strengthening ties with Japan • 25%
Strengthening ties with EU • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements or major news reports
Story
China Launches Largest Military Drills Since 1996 Around Taiwan, Deploys 60 Warships
Dec 11, 2024, 09:03 AM
Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported that China has launched large-scale military drills around the island, involving 53 military aircraft and 19 ships, marking the largest maritime deployment since 1996. The exercises involve activities around the "first island chain" and include about 60 warships and 30 coast guard vessels deployed from areas near the southern islands of Japan to the South China Sea. Taiwan's Defense Ministry spokesperson, Major General Sun Li-fang, stated that the maneuvers pose a significant security challenge, not only to Taiwan but also to other countries in the region. The drills appear to be in response to Taiwanese President William Lai's recent visit to the Pacific. Military jets were seen taking off and landing at Hsinchu airbase in Taiwan on Tuesday in response to the increased Chinese military activity. The drills have been criticized by Taiwan's government as undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China will not allow "Taiwan independence" separatist forces to go out of control and will never adopt a "wait and see" approach.
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Condemnation by the U.S. • 25%
Condemnation by the EU • 25%
Condemnation by ASEAN • 25%
No major international reaction • 25%
Increase in Defense Spending • 25%
New Defense Alliances • 25%
Strengthening Domestic Military Capabilities • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
De-escalation and cessation of drills • 25%
Continuation with no further escalation • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Direct military conflict initiated • 25%
UN Condemnation • 25%
US Sanctions • 25%
Joint Military Exercises with Taiwan • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Condemnation by major powers • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed • 25%
Military alliance support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Diplomatic protests only • 25%
Increased military readiness • 25%
Formal alliance request • 25%
Direct military engagement • 25%
Increased tensions but no military conflict • 25%
Formal diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increase in defense spending • 25%
Strengthening of alliances • 25%
Military conscription policy changes • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
U.S. increases military presence in the region • 25%
EU issues a formal condemnation • 25%
ASEAN countries call for diplomatic talks • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Calls for diplomatic talks • 25%
Increased military presence in region • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased air patrols • 25%
Increased naval patrols • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant response • 25%
