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What will be the outcome of China's military drills around Taiwan by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
De-escalation and cessation of drills • 25%
Continuation with no further escalation • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Direct military conflict initiated • 25%
Official statements from the People's Liberation Army and Taiwan's Ministry of Defense
Story
China Launches Military Drills Encircling Taiwan, Citing Separatist Acts; Taiwan Responds
Oct 13, 2024, 10:52 PM
China has initiated new military drills in the Taiwan Strait, sending planes and ships to encircle the island nation. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced the exercises are a warning against "separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces" and are believed to be in response to Lai's National Day Address. Taiwan has condemned the move as "irrational and provocative," with the Ministry of Defense stating it has dispatched "appropriate forces" in response. "We strongly condemn this provocative action by China," the Ministry added. The drills escalate tensions in the region.
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Increased tensions but no military conflict • 25%
Formal diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions with Taiwan • 25%
Improved military capabilities • 25%
International diplomatic backlash • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation by the U.S. • 25%
Condemnation by the EU • 25%
Condemnation by ASEAN • 25%
No major international reaction • 25%
Increase in defense budget • 25%
Strengthened alliances with other countries • 25%
Deployment of additional military assets • 25%
No significant changes • 25%