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What will be the international response to China's military drills around Taiwan by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Condemnation by major powers • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed • 25%
Military alliance support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Official statements from international bodies such as the United Nations or NATO, and national governments
Story
China Launches Military Drills Encircling Taiwan, Citing Separatist Acts; Taiwan Responds
Oct 13, 2024, 10:52 PM
China has initiated new military drills in the Taiwan Strait, sending planes and ships to encircle the island nation. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced the exercises are a warning against "separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces" and are believed to be in response to Lai's National Day Address. Taiwan has condemned the move as "irrational and provocative," with the Ministry of Defense stating it has dispatched "appropriate forces" in response. "We strongly condemn this provocative action by China," the Ministry added. The drills escalate tensions in the region.
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UN Condemnation • 25%
US Sanctions • 25%
Joint Military Exercises with Taiwan • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
US military support to Taiwan • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation only • 25%
No significant response • 25%
U.S. increases military presence in the region • 25%
EU issues a formal condemnation • 25%
ASEAN countries call for diplomatic talks • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Condemnation by the U.S. • 25%
Condemnation by the EU • 25%
Condemnation by ASEAN • 25%
No major international reaction • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Call for dialogue • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by major international bodies • 25%
Sanctions imposed on China • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Condemnation from UN • 25%
Joint military drills with Taiwan • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased tensions but no military conflict • 25%
Formal diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military deterrence • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
Diplomatic mediation efforts • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military exercises by China • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed by China • 25%
No significant response • 25%