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Market
How many TikTok users will there be in the US by the end of 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 100 million • 25%
100 to 150 million • 25%
150 to 200 million • 25%
More than 200 million • 25%
Official user statistics from TikTok or reputable market research firms
Story
Supreme Court Hears TikTok's First Amendment Challenge Ahead of January 19 Ban
Jan 10, 2025, 12:05 PM
On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in TikTok's challenge to a federal law signed by President Joe Biden last April, requiring the social media app to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, or face a nationwide ban effective January 19. TikTok, which has about 170 million users in the U.S., argues that the ban violates the First Amendment's free speech protections. The case, considered one of the most important of the social media age, pits national security concerns against free speech rights, as the government contends that TikTok poses a threat due to its Chinese ownership. The outcome will determine whether TikTok, used by roughly half of the U.S. population for entertainment and information, can continue operating in the United States.
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Similar markets
Less than 100 million • 25%
150-170 million • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
Over 170 million • 25%
Platform banned • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
User base stable • 25%
User base increases • 25%
User base remains stable • 25%
TikTok exits U.S. market • 25%
User base increases • 25%
User base decreases • 25%
Less than 1 billion • 25%
1 to 1.2 billion • 25%
1.2 to 1.5 billion • 25%
More than 1.5 billion • 25%
Data not available • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Not operational • 25%
Under new ownership • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
Decrease by less than 20% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by 20-50% • 25%
Other • 25%
No Change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
Operational changes without sale • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%
Continues without change • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operates with ByteDance • 25%
Other • 25%