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What will be the government's response if TikTok wins by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Appeal the decision • 25%
Introduce new legislation • 25%
No further action • 25%
Other response • 25%
Official government announcements or news reports
Story
Supreme Court Hears TikTok's First Amendment Challenge Ahead of January 19 Ban
Jan 10, 2025, 12:05 PM
On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in TikTok's challenge to a federal law signed by President Joe Biden last April, requiring the social media app to divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, or face a nationwide ban effective January 19. TikTok, which has about 170 million users in the U.S., argues that the ban violates the First Amendment's free speech protections. The case, considered one of the most important of the social media age, pits national security concerns against free speech rights, as the government contends that TikTok poses a threat due to its Chinese ownership. The outcome will determine whether TikTok, used by roughly half of the U.S. population for entertainment and information, can continue operating in the United States.
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Political Resolution • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
TikTok Banned • 25%
Divestment • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Permanent Ban • 25%
Temporary Allowance • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Unrestricted Operation • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Divest from ByteDance • 25%
Challenge in court • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Order upheld • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Order blocked • 25%
Conditional Operation Allowed • 25%
Ban Implemented • 25%
Ban Lifted • 25%
No Decision Made • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Other • 25%
Supreme Court ruling • 25%
Political negotiation • 25%
Injunction granted • 33%
Injunction denied • 33%
Settlement reached • 34%
Appeal Rejected • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
No Decision by Deadline • 25%
Appeal Accepted • 25%