Loading...
Market
Will there be a change in leadership or policy stance in Israel or Hamas by the end of 2025?
2
Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Joe Biden•Donald Trump•Israel•Gaza•Hamas•Netanyahu•Trump•Biden•Israeli attacks
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Policy shift by Israel • 25%
Policy shift by Hamas • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of Israel or Hamas or reports from major news outlets
Story
Netanyahu: U.S. Backs Israel's Return to Gaza War, Trump to Resume Military Supplies
Jan 18, 2025, 08:30 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that both U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have assured their full backing for Israel to resume military action in Gaza if Hamas violates the terms of the ceasefire and prisoner swap agreement. The agreement, brokered by the U.S., includes a phased negotiation process, with the second phase focusing on further prisoner exchanges and security guarantees. Netanyahu emphasized that any breach of the agreement would lead to a resumption of intense fighting, with the U.S. providing military and diplomatic support. He also stated that Trump has committed to resuming military supplies that were previously halted under the Biden administration. Netanyahu attributed the deal to Israel's military successes and reiterated that Hamas would bear full responsibility for any violations. The agreement follows over 15 months of Israeli attacks on Gaza, which have resulted in more than 46,000 deaths. Negotiations for the second phase are set to begin after the first phase, which lasts 42 days.
View original story
Similar markets
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant policy shift • 25%
No change • 25%
Change in both • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in military policy • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New Prime Minister • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Other leadership outcome • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
U.S. leads further negotiations • 25%
Qatar leads further negotiations • 25%
Joint Qatar-U.S. negotiations • 25%
Neither leads further negotiations • 25%
Other major change • 25%
Finance Minister replaced • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Prime Minister replaced • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh replaced • 25%
Yahya Sinwar replaced • 25%
Both leaders replaced • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Economic development focus • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Leadership transition in progress • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Other organizational changes • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Hamas leadership change • 25%