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Will there be a change in Hamas leadership by Jun 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership transition in progress • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Official announcements from Hamas or verified news reports
Story
Hamas Threatens to Neutralize Hostages from Nuseirat Camp Amid Reports of Israeli Rescue Plans in June
Dec 4, 2024, 02:32 PM
Hamas has issued an internal statement instructing its operatives to tighten the conditions under which they hold hostages and has threatened to 'neutralize' them if Israel attempts a rescue operation. The statement, which has been reported by multiple sources including Reuters, claims that Hamas has information indicating that Israel plans to conduct a hostage rescue operation similar to the one executed in June at the Nuseirat camp in Gaza. The group holds Israel responsible for the fate of the hostages. This warning comes amid ongoing tensions and military operations in the region, highlighting the precarious situation for the captives.
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Other leadership outcome • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Both leaders replaced • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh replaced • 25%
Yahya Sinwar replaced • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Other organizational changes • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Hamas leadership change • 25%
Yahya Sinwar • 25%
Khaled Mashal • 25%
Other • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh • 25%
Change in both • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
No change • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Leadership change due to external pressure • 25%
Leadership arrested or neutralized • 25%
Leadership change due to internal factors • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Mahmoud Abbas remains President • 25%
No clear leadership change • 25%
Interim leadership established • 25%
New President elected • 25%
No change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Both changes • 25%
Policy change • 25%