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Will there be a leadership change or policy shift in Israel or Hamas by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Significant policy shift • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements or reports from major news outlets
Story
Biden Announces Gaza Ceasefire: Three Hostages Released to Israeli Custody, 90 Palestinian Prisoners to Follow
Jan 19, 2025, 04:03 PM
President Joe Biden announced that a ceasefire in Gaza has taken effect, marking a significant development in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The ceasefire led to the release of the first three Israeli hostages by Hamas, who were handed over to Israeli custody. Biden emphasized the cessation of hostilities, stating, 'After so much pain, destruction, and loss of life, today the guns in Gaza have gone silent.' The ceasefire deal, which Biden outlined in May, also involves the entry of hundreds of aid trucks into Gaza to provide assistance to civilians affected by the conflict. The release of the hostages is part of a broader agreement that includes the planned release of around 90 Palestinian prisoners by Israel later on the same day.
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Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Policy shift by Israel • 25%
Policy shift by Hamas • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
No change • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in both • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New Prime Minister • 25%
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Finance Minister replaced • 25%
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Prime Minister replaced • 25%
Yahya Sinwar replaced • 25%
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Both leaders replaced • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh replaced • 25%
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Leadership dispute • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Resignation of IDF Chief • 25%
Resignation of a key government minister • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
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Other leadership change • 25%
Leadership transition in progress • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
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Change in both countries' leadership • 25%
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Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in Iranian leadership • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Hamas leadership change • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
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Joint Qatar-U.S. negotiations • 25%
Qatar leads further negotiations • 25%
Neither leads further negotiations • 25%
U.S. leads further negotiations • 25%