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Will there be a change in leadership within Hamas by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
Other leadership outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Hamas or verified reports by major news outlets
Story
Israel Katz Warns Hamas of Intensified Strikes in Gaza Unless 100 Hostages Held for 14 Months Are Released
Jan 1, 2025, 04:59 PM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued a stern warning to Hamas, threatening intensified military action in Gaza if the group does not release the approximately 100 hostages it has held for 14 months and cease rocket attacks on Israel. Katz made these remarks during a visit to the southern Israeli city of Netivot, which was targeted by two rockets from Palestinian militias the previous night, causing no damage or injuries. He stated that if Hamas fails to allow the release of the hostages soon, despite Israel's willingness to make significant compromises as outlined by the U.S. President, and continues to fire at Israeli communities, it will face 'blows with a force not seen in Gaza for a long time.' Katz also called on the people of Gaza to rise up against Hamas, accusing the group of using civilians as human shields.
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Leadership transition in progress • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
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Current leader remains • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Other organizational changes • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Hamas leadership change • 25%
Yahya Sinwar • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh • 25%
Other • 25%
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Change in both • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
No change • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Other • 25%
New President elected • 25%
No clear leadership change • 25%
Mahmoud Abbas remains President • 25%
Interim leadership established • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Policy change • 25%
Both changes • 25%
No change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Houthi leadership change • 25%
Houthi leadership strengthened • 25%
Houthi leadership weakened but unchanged • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Increased aggression • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Policy shift towards peace • 25%