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Will espionage link to Russia be confirmed in Bavarian drone incidents by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Statements or reports from German authorities or intelligence agencies
Story
Germany Probes 10 Drone Sightings Over Military Sites in Bavaria Amid Espionage Concerns
Jan 13, 2025, 01:02 PM
German authorities are investigating the sighting of up to 10 drones over military facilities in Bavaria, specifically over the Eurofighter production site in Manching and another military installation in Neuburg an der Donau. The incidents, which occurred on January 12, are part of a series of similar events reported in December at the same locations. The Bavarian State Criminal Police Office (LKA) and the Munich Public Prosecutor's Office are leading the investigation, suspecting possible espionage linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Despite intensive searches, including the use of police helicopters, the operators of the drones have not been identified. The authorities have appealed for witnesses to come forward with any information that could help identify the individuals responsible for these unauthorized drone flights.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Private Entity • 25%
Foreign State Actor • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Russian origin confirmed • 25%
Origin confirmed but not Russian • 25%
Origin remains unidentified • 25%
Recreational • 25%
Espionage • 25%
Commercial • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
6-10 drones • 25%
0-5 drones • 25%
11-20 drones • 25%
More than 20 drones • 25%
Non-espionage related explanation • 25%
Russian espionage confirmed • 25%
Other foreign espionage confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
