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What will be the outcome of the Bavarian military site drone investigation by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Espionage confirmed • 25%
Unrelated civilian activity • 25%
Unidentified • 25%
Other • 25%
Official reports or announcements from German authorities
Story
Germany Probes 10 Drone Sightings Over Military Sites in Bavaria Amid Espionage Concerns
Jan 13, 2025, 01:02 PM
German authorities are investigating the sighting of up to 10 drones over military facilities in Bavaria, specifically over the Eurofighter production site in Manching and another military installation in Neuburg an der Donau. The incidents, which occurred on January 12, are part of a series of similar events reported in December at the same locations. The Bavarian State Criminal Police Office (LKA) and the Munich Public Prosecutor's Office are leading the investigation, suspecting possible espionage linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Despite intensive searches, including the use of police helicopters, the operators of the drones have not been identified. The authorities have appealed for witnesses to come forward with any information that could help identify the individuals responsible for these unauthorized drone flights.
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Inconclusive findings • 25%
Other foreign espionage confirmed • 25%
Non-espionage related explanation • 25%
Russian espionage confirmed • 25%
Origin remains unidentified • 25%
No official conclusion • 25%
Origin confirmed but not Russian • 25%
Russian origin confirmed • 25%
Commercial • 25%
Espionage • 25%
Recreational • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Foreign State Actor • 25%
Other • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
Private Entity • 25%
Identified, No Action • 25%
Identified and Addressed • 25%
Unidentified, No Further Action • 25%
Ongoing Investigation • 25%
Diplomatic action against Russia • 25%
Increased military security • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Source remains unidentified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Identified foreign source • 25%
Identified domestic source • 25%
Confirmed Ukrainian responsibility • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Other findings • 25%
Attributed to non-state actors • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
National Security Threat • 25%
Technological Malfunction • 25%
Other • 25%
No Threat Identified • 25%
Human error identified • 25%
Both technical and human error • 25%
No clear cause identified • 25%
Technical failure identified • 25%
Foreign government involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Domestic group or individual • 25%