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Will Cuba release political prisoners in response to U.S. actions by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from human rights organizations or major news agencies
Story
U.S. to Remove Cuba from Terrorism List, Reversing Trump's 2021 Designation
Jan 14, 2025, 07:31 PM
U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to the Associated Press, have indicated that the Biden administration is expected to remove Cuba from the U.S. list of State Sponsors of Terrorism. The decision would reverse former President Donald Trump's 2021 designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism. Officials reportedly concluded that there is no information supporting Cuba's inclusion on the list. The administration also plans to rescind Trump-era restrictions and eliminate the restricted list that limits transactions with certain Cuban entities. The move is expected to prompt the release of political prisoners in response to U.S. actions. An official announcement is anticipated soon.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Some prisoners released • 25%
Deal falls through • 25%
No prisoners released • 25%
All prisoners released • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal remains intact • 25%
Deal reversed by Trump administration • 25%
Deal modified by Trump administration • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Extradition of suspects • 25%
US removes Cuba from terrorism list • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other diplomatic gestures • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
Release of political prisoners • 25%