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What will U.S. public opinion be on NATO membership by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority support staying • 25%
Majority support withdrawing • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Major U.S. public opinion polls
Story
Trump Warns NATO: Pay Up or U.S. Might Withdraw, NBC News Reports
Dec 8, 2024, 03:39 PM
Former President Donald Trump has issued a statement indicating that the United States' commitment to NATO hinges on member countries meeting their financial obligations. In an interview with NBC News, Trump emphasized that if NATO allies pay their bills, the U.S. would remain in the alliance. He stated, "If they pay their bills, absolutely," when asked about the U.S. staying in NATO. Trump's comments suggest a potential withdrawal from the alliance if he perceives it as being treated unfairly or if countries do not increase their contributions. This stance has raised concerns among allies about the future of U.S. involvement in NATO.
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Similar markets
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Decreased support for NATO • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No change in support • 25%
Majority support leaving • 25%
Majority support staying • 25%
Opinion remains divided • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
US reduces involvement • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
US withdraws from NATO • 25%
US remains in NATO • 25%
Reduced aid to Ukraine • 25%
Withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Increased aid to Ukraine • 25%
More supportive • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Uncertain • 25%
Less supportive • 25%
Somewhat Oppose • 25%
Strongly Support • 25%
Somewhat Support • 25%
Strongly Oppose • 25%
No official response • 25%
Oppose U.S. interests • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Support U.S. interests • 25%
No clear position • 25%
Oppose Ukraine's membership • 25%
Support Ukraine's membership • 25%
Propose alternative security measures • 25%
Minimal response • 25%
Other • 25%
Strong condemnation • 25%
Calls for renegotiation • 25%
Divided • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Critical • 25%