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What will be the outcome of the 2025 NATO summit regarding U.S. membership?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement on increased contributions • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
U.S. threatens withdrawal • 25%
NATO restructuring proposed • 25%
Official NATO summit reports or press releases
Story
Trump Warns NATO: Pay Up or U.S. Might Withdraw, NBC News Reports
Dec 8, 2024, 03:39 PM
Former President Donald Trump has issued a statement indicating that the United States' commitment to NATO hinges on member countries meeting their financial obligations. In an interview with NBC News, Trump emphasized that if NATO allies pay their bills, the U.S. would remain in the alliance. He stated, "If they pay their bills, absolutely," when asked about the U.S. staying in NATO. Trump's comments suggest a potential withdrawal from the alliance if he perceives it as being treated unfairly or if countries do not increase their contributions. This stance has raised concerns among allies about the future of U.S. involvement in NATO.
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Similar markets
US remains in NATO • 25%
US withdraws from NATO • 25%
US reduces involvement • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Decreased support for NATO • 25%
No change in support • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes, with conditions • 25%
Yes, without conditions • 25%
No, not discussed • 25%
No, postponed • 25%
Stronger NATO support • 25%
Weaker NATO support • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Improved relations with EU • 25%
Majority in favor • 25%
Majority against • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Increased support for NATO • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Threatened withdrawal • 25%
Reduced support for NATO • 25%
