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What will be the state of Türkiye-U.S. relations over Syria by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Official government statements and credible news outlets
Story
Biden Revises Executive Order 13894, Lifts Sanctions on Türkiye Over PKK/YPG Operation
Jan 17, 2025, 06:54 AM
Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden has revised Executive Order 13894, originally issued in 2019 by then-President Donald Trump, removing all references to Türkiye and lifting sanctions related to the country's Operation Peace Spring in Syria. The original order was enacted in response to Türkiye's military actions against the PKK/YPG in northern Syria. Biden's amendment reflects changes in the geopolitical situation in Syria since the operation concluded, and it removes the threat of automatic sanctions against Türkiye for future operations against PKK/YPG territories. The revised order retains the U.S.'s authority to impose sanctions on individuals threatening Syria's peace, security, stability, or territorial integrity, or those involved in serious human rights violations.
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Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Partial stabilization • 25%
Deterioration of situation • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Successful stabilization • 25%
No change • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Partial normalization • 25%
Full normalization • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
Increased tensions leading to sanctions • 25%
Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
